NO MORE MR. NICE GUY, DONALD’S NO GOOD VERY BAD WEEK
BEING THE 5TH PART OF THIS IS ALL COMPLETELY NORMAL
As we cycle - yet again - through the violent spectacle of threaten/bomb/“agree” that is how Donald Trump conducts diplomacy, it’s worth revisiting the last week of April because this earlier cycle was especially full of significant and revealing moments in the Great Unravelling of the Donald and his Jolly War. On Wednesday of that week, Trump doubled down on his threats against Iran with his adorable “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” post. The mullahs, by that point, had taken to ignoring and slow-walking their response to Donald’s increasingly shrill and impotent demands, knowing that he lacked leverage and that he was under mounting pressure to end the war. This pressure was reportedly coming both from people he cares about (like Vladimir Putin) and also from people he merely tolerates (like congressional Republicans - timidly, of course behind closed doors - and his own long-suffering MAGA followers).
On the following day, Thursday, April 30, Donald Trump received a Situation Room briefing similar to the one he received on February 26, two days before the start of the current war. Sources have suggested that the next round of attacks - should they occur - would focus on large scale bombing of Iranian infrastructure, including targets like bridges and power plants. It should be noted that the willy-nilly bombing of civilian infrastructure is a war crime, and also that destroying non-military targets is not likely to topple the Iranian regime, or to end their nuclear program, or to save the people of Iran who will - of course - be the ones who are actually being bombed.
It’s also worth noting that the next day, Friday, May 1, marked the 60 day deadline when congress was required by the War Powers Act to approve of any ongoing military action. In light of this requirement, on that day Trump duly notified Congress that hostilities with Iran had “terminated”, this despite the fact that the American blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was and still is in effect, and that a naval blockade is - obviously - an act of war. To be clear, Donald Trump declaring the hostilities to be “terminated” while peace talks continue is not to be confused in any way with an actual termination of hostilities. Just in the last year, Trump has not once but twice attacked Iran while negotiations were supposedly ongoing. The mullahs will not be surprised should American missiles rain down again, nor should we. In declaring the hostilities with Iran to be “terminated” Trump was doing only one thing, and it had nothing at all to do with whatever hostilities may be happening - or about to happen - in the Middle East. By declaring the hostilities to be “terminated” Trump was simply gifting a fig leaf to congressional Republicans, who’ve been terrified of expressing any opinion whatsoever about Trump’s rampage in Iran, lest they displease their mad king by insufficiently praising his illegal, insane and incompetently prosecuted war.
Donald Trump has a plan. Trump’s clearly stated “plan” is to not seek congressional approval for his unprovoked war in Iran, or even to acknowledge congressional authority over this or any other war he might decide to wage at some point in the future. Trump would prefer to conduct his war in Iran entirely at his own discretion: as some sort of personal crusade, or perhaps as an exclusive business opportunity that is available to him - and to him alone - by virtue of his status as king. Trump has claimed - falsely, as if this even needs to be said - that the War Powers Act is “totally unconstitutional”, and that no president has ever sought congressional approval for military action. This is clearly - in the words of Democratic senator Chuck Schumer - “Bullshit”.
Congressional Republicans also have a plan. Based on their actions so far, their “plan” - with very, very few exceptions - is to offer no open resistance to Trump (whatsoever/as he takes America to war). To be clear and to call this what it is - because, again, the path back to sanity involves calling things by their proper names - the overwhelming majority of congressional Republicans are revealing themselves to be so craven, so chickenshit and so morally void that they can’t even bring themselves to discuss the possibility of placing any limitations at all on the actions of the obviously depraved and declining warlord who has seized control of their party. They are unwilling to challenge the most absurdly corrupt, unworthy and dangerous president in American history as he unilaterally launches America into what may be the stupidest and potentially the most destructive foreign adventure of our time. They have appointed Trump as emperor and flung themselves - cowering - at his feet. Thus is an American Caligula loosed upon the world.
In so doing, what remains of the once-great party of Lincoln has utterly abandoned and betrayed the Constitution and the most cherished ideals of our democratic republic. That they’ve chosen to do so on the 250th anniversary of our declaration of these truly revolutionary ideals before the world raises their shameless betrayal to the level of troll-lord performance art, so ten points to Slytherin for style. Hopefully, this collective act of astonishing cowardice will lead to their utter ruin and rejection at the hands of the American people at the earliest possible opportunity.
In Iran, probably the best we can hope for is that Donald Trump walks away from his war without another major escalation, and that he does this sooner rather than later — before too many more people lose their lives, and before he destroys too much more of the world economy. It’s worth remembering that, in the long run, the endless uncertainty of on-again-off-again negotiations and a lingering blockade can grind down the world economy just as effectively as a return to open hostilities, and that the economic pain and disruption caused by Donald’s pointless war will be felt long after the war itself is over. It’s also worth remembering that it’s not just the people of the Middle East or those of us in the wealthy West who are hostage to Trump’s current, deranged, blood-covered tantrum: nowhere on earth is truly beyond the blast radius of whatever hits Iran. The longer the war and the blockade continue, the more likely it becomes that shortages of fertilizer and fuel and spreading economic instability will push millions of the world’s most vulnerable people into truly disastrous situations, even those who live thousands of miles away from anything that was actually blown up by one of Donald’s bombs.
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It’s theoretically possible that the people of Iran may somehow gain their freedom as an indirect consequence of Trump’s attack, but if they do gain their freedom it’s extremely unlikely that it will be because Trump made any significant effort to give it to them. It seems self-evident that Donald Trump has spent far more time these last few months pondering what he’s going to have for lunch than he’s spent thinking about ways in which to help the long-suffering people of Iran. If the people of Iran are going to regain their freedom it will be because they rise up in defiance of a predatory and immoral dictatorship and they re-establish that freedom for themselves.
The same is true here in the US.
The current regime in Iran will almost certainly survive Donald Trump’s war. As he staggers away from the fight, Donald will of course claim a Glorious Victory, but that “victory” will almost certainly NOT include the achievement of even one of the supposed goals of his misguided war. In the end, the Iranian regime will most likely emerge from beneath the wreckage with their power over their people and with their nuclear program fully intact. Iranian missiles and drones will continue to pose a serious threat to their neighbors in the Gulf. At this point, it looks like the best case scenario for Donald is that he’ll be able to claim that his war on Iran didn’t make the economic and military situation in the Gulf significantly worse than it was before his war, that the situation in the region has effectively reverted back to the previous status quo.
That said, even if the situation on the ground looks more-or-less how it looked before February 28, it seems clear that at least two of the regimes involved in the conflict will have been profoundly changed by this latest round of hostilities. Because of their demonstrated ability to survive the worst that the US and Israel could throw at them, the Iranian regime will almost certainly emerge from Donald’s war with their regional power and prestige enormously enhanced. Donald Trump’s regime, on the other hand, seems extremely unlikely to survive the murderous, incoherent, unnecessary, expensive and insanely destructive fiasco that is his war on Iran. With his brutal and ridiculous war on Iran, Donald Trump has succeeded only in decisively defeating himself. This is a subject to which we will return in Part 6 of this essay, which will feature the always delightful Tucker Carlson as a Bird of Prophecy, along with a number of other - increasingly profane - ecological metaphors.
Bring some popcorn and hope to see you there soon.
COMING SOON:
THIS IS ALL COMPLETELY NORMAL - PART 6
On Very Uncharismatic Megafauna and the Fall of the King
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